Andy Pettitte’s Hall of Fame leap forward

Each year, when members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America receive their ballot to vote for the National Baseball Hall of Fame’s newest class, they are greeted with a bevy of new names. Those who are listed on more than 75 percent of ballots join that most exclusive group of first-ballot Hall of Famers. A majority, despite exceptional careers, garner little consideration, falling below the five percent threshold needed to stick on the ballot.

Then there are those who land somewhere in between, with enough support to make it to the following year’s ballot but not enough to secure induction. There were 14 such holdovers on this year’s ballot, ranging from those in their second go-around to Billy Wagner, who was voted in on his 10th and final opportunity. Among those 14, one player’s vote totals rose by a higher margin than any other.

It wasn’t Wagner, who surged after falling just five votes short last year. It wasn’t Carlos Beltrán, who surpassed 70 percent as the cloud surrounding his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal continues to dissipate. Nor was it Hall of Fame cause célèbre Andruw Jones, whose meager increase in voter support former teammate Chipper Jones blamed (unconvincingly) on pro-Yankees bias. Instead, it was, in fact, a Yankee. One who debuted below 10 percent on the ballot and languished in the teens on the next five. One whose Hall of Fame case just got a lot more interesting.

Andy Pettitte received 110 votes on the 2025 ballot, good for 27.9 percent of the electorate and more than double the 13.5 percent he tallied last year. While that still may not sound like much, it far surpasses the totals garnered by Cy Young Award winner Félix Hernández and MVP Award winners Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia. While still far from 75 percent, this sudden surge is noteworthy. To what can we attribute Pettitte’s ascent?

The most likely answer is the appearance of his teammate and close friend CC Sabathia on this year’s ballot. As Jayson Stark outlined in an article explaining his decision to cast a vote for Pettitte for the first time this year, the two left-handers had remarkably similar careers by many measures. Pettitte won five more games and had an ERA+ one point higher than Sabathia, while CC posted 2.1 more bWAR. And, while Sabathia’s postseason résumé is impressive, it’s dwarfed by Pettitte’s, with the latter starting 18 more playoff games, registering nine more wins, and posting an ERA nearly a half-run lower.

Sabathia’s presence on the ballot made it difficult for many of the 86.8 percent of voters who checked his box to dismiss Pettitte’s case out of hand. After learning of his own induction, Sabathia agreed, relaying simply “for me, Andy is a Hall of Famer.” The ERA+ comparison appeared particularly salient as a mitigating factor for Pettitte’s seemingly underwhelming ERA (his 3.85 mark would be the highest for any southpaw in the Hall). With Sabathia as a point of comparison, much of that high ERA (by Hall standards) can be explained away by Pettitte’s having pitched mostly in the AL East during the steroid era.

Which, of course, leads us to the elephant in the room. In 2007, after being named in the Mitchell Report, Pettitte admitted to using human growth hormone on two occasions in an attempt to recover more quickly from injury. While it’s been widely asserted that there are likely players who used performance-enhancing drugs already in the Hall, no player who has admitted to using PEDs has been enshrined (and several others who maintain their innocence have been kept out due to the implication that they used). It’s difficult to give Pettitte too much credit for pitching in the steroid era when he used a banned substance himself. More to the point, while Pettitte is more well-liked in baseball circles than many others tarred with the steroid brush — in part due to his candor and public remorse after coming clean — it will almost certainly put a ceiling on his support on the ballot.

Among players with under 30 percent of votes and three years left on the ballot, only Larry Walker has ever climbed the mountain to induction via the writers, so Pettitte’s chances were slim there anyway. But committees have been willing to consider pitchers who land in the range that Pettitte has already reached (Jim Kaat, who was selected by the Golden Days Era Committee in 2022, for example, never reached 30 percent on any BBWAA ballot).

At least for the time being, though, committee voters have given the impression they’ll be even harsher on those with a connection to PEDs than the BBWAA; when Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro debuted on a committee ballot in 2023, none received even the four votes out of 16 required to be reported upon, let alone the 12 needed for induction. Until those superstars are reconsidered, it’s hard to imagine Pettitte getting a serious shot at the Hall. But, if the frost on enshrinement for players associated with PEDs begins to thaw in the years (or even decades) to come, Pettitte’s rise in voting this cycle could boost his chances at another look.