Mariners extra: Felnin Celesten off to hot start in Modesto

In our Sunday inside baseball page, we review the week that was, highlighting key trends with the Mariners and ranking the top teams around the league.

Stat of the Week

1.4

The Mariners’ Jorge Polanco entered the weekend ranked No. 1 among all MLB players with a 1.4 Win Probability Added, a metric that quantifies how much a player’s actions on any given play influence his team’s chances of winning a game. In his first 31 at-bats, Polanco has 13 hits for a .419 batting average and a 1.147 OPS. He hit his third homer of the season off Jacob deGrom in the Mariners’ 5-3 victory Friday night, and he leads the team with 11 RBI through his first nine games.

Who’s Hot

Andrés Muñoz leads the Mariners with a 0.8 bWAR through his first seven appearances of the season. The Mariners’ 26-year-old closer earned his fifth save of the season on Friday, leading the majors in that category. In seven innings, he has not allowed a run, with four hits, 10 strikeouts and four walks (one intentional).

Who’s Not

Since Robinson Cano’s final game in Seattle in 2018, Mariners second basemen rank last among all 30 teams in batting average (.222) and doubles (143), 29th in OPS (.632) and wOBA (.279), and 27th in fWAR (5.7) across 906 games.

Prospect Watch

Felnin Celesten, the Mariners’ 19-year-old switch-hitting shortstop, had 10 hits in his first 27 at-bats at Low-A Modesto, with a .370/.414/.481 slash line (.895 OPS), one homer, eight RBI, two walks, six strikeouts and one steal (in two attempts). Celesten is one of the Mariners’ nine prospects ranked in the Baseball America Top 100. Switch pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, playing for in High-A Everett, made his debut on the Top 100 this past week (at No. 100).

Ex-Mariner of the Week

Things are only getting worse for Jarred Kelenic in his second season in Atlanta. The 25-year-old posted a .171/.275/.286 (.561 OPS) through his first 40 plate appearances, with one homer, a wRC+ of 65 and a strikeout rate of 40%. There has been uncertainty about Kelenic’s place on the Atlanta roster once star right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. returns from a torn ACL in the next next month or so.

Power Rankings

MLB’s definitive weekly rankings, from The Seattle Times’ Adam Jude

1. Padres

Even with two key offensive pieces (Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth) on IL, the Padres entered the weekend with MLB’s best record and remained unbeaten (8-0) at home. “Winners find solutions, and that’s what we look to do every day,” manager Mike Shildt said.

2. Phillies

3. Dodgers

4. Giants

5. Mets

Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million extension in Toronto should bode well for Pete Alonso, another slugging first baseman who figures to opt out of his contract this winter and reenter free agency. Alonso (1.260 OPS) is off to the best start of his career.

6. Tigers

7. Yankees

8. Brewers

9. Cubs

10. Diamondbacks

Mired in a prolonged slump in the first half of 2024, Seattle native Corbin Carroll has been baseball’s best player so far this season, at least according to one key metric. His 1.3 FanGraphs WAR puts him just ahead of Aaron Judge (1.2), Kyle Tucker (1.1) and Pete Alonso (1.1)

11. Rangers

12. Royals

13. Blue Jays

14. Red Sox

15. Guardians

Really not sure what to make of Cleveland so far. Guards’ bullpen remains elite, but the rotation and the lineup looks very mid … hence their ranking here.

17. Mariners

18. Astros

19. Rays

20. A’s

21. Angels

Nice to see Mike Trout healthy and humming again. But FanGraph’s projection system isn’t buying the Angels’ hot start (and, frankly, neither are we). The Angels entered the weekend with just a 14.8% odds to make the playoffs, tied with the A’s for the lowest in the AL West. The Rangers lead at 61.7%, followed by then Astros (52.5%) and Mariners (50.7%).

22. Braves

23. Cardinals

24. Reds

25. Nationals

26. Marlins

27. Twins

28. Pirates

29. White Sox

30. Rockies

Entering Saturday, Colorado had lost 10 of its first 13 games and had a run differential of minus-36 (by far the worst in MLB). For context, the 2024 White Sox lost 11 of their first 13 games and had a run differential of minus-39. That White Sox team, of course, went on to lose a modern-record 121 games last season. Hey Rockies: We’re watching you.