Field of 64 Projections: New top overall seed leads shakeup to college baseball's NCAA tournament

The week following our initial midseason Field of 64 projections, released last week, was full of chaos across college baseball. This week’s projections have been shaken up as a result, with a new top overall seed and two new regional hosts.

The new top overall seed comes as a result of the surprising weekend series between top-seeded Tennessee and Texas A&M. Despite being out of the picture, the Aggies went on the road and dominated in a Saturday doubleheader to take the series, and potentially move within bubble range. Tennessee, on the other hand, is still in a good position to host as a top seed, but fall out of the top spot for now.

Florida State, last week’s fourth overall seed, also lost its series to Wake Forest in blowout fashion, resulting in a fall out of the top eight for the Seminoles. The same can be said for Alabama, who lost two out of three against rival Auburn.

There are plenty of changes in this week’s Field of 64 projections, on and off the hosting line. With plenty of baseball still to be played, more changes are coming in the next few weeks.

Field of 64: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Baylor, Creighton, McNeese, USC
First Four Out: Stanford, Virginia, UC Santa Barbara, Liberty
Next Four Out: Hawaii, Michigan, Texas A&M, Mississippi State

Baylor, Creighton, McNeese and USC come in on the right side of the bubble this week, and it’s an interesting bubble right now to say the least. Stanford once seemed like a guarantee to make the tournament just weeks ago, but has now fallen out of the field due to immense struggles. Elsewhere on the bubble, Texas A&M moves into bubble territory with their series win over Tennessee, but they, like Mississippi State, will still need to win some more SEC series to get into the tournament.

*denotes automatic qualifier for conference champions

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (1)*
2. Western Kentucky*
3. Northeastern*
4. Davidson*

As Tennessee falls, Arkansas takes advantage and slides up into the top overall seed this week. The Razorbacks are 30-3 overall on the year, 11-1 in the SEC and No. 1 in RPI. If Dave Van Horn’s squad keeps winning, they’ll be in contention for the top seed all year. In this regional, they are matched up with a red-hot Western Kentucky team, that steals the automatic Conference USA bid after taking their series over Dallas Baptist.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (16)
2. Vanderbilt
3. Baylor
4. Samford*

One of our new hosts in this week’s projections is Georgia Tech, who is 26-6 overall, 11-4 in the ACC and No. 1 in RPI right now. The Yellow Jackets look like a legitimate hosting-caliber team so far. The same can be said for Vanderbilt, who is 24-8 overall, 7-5 in the SEC and No. 8 in RPI. The Commodores are the first team off of our hosting line, mostly due to their upcoming schedule in SEC play.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (2)
2. Xavier*
3. UTRGV*
4. Navy*

After a loud series sweep over Georgia, Texas is the new No. 2 overall seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Longhorns are 26-4 overall, 11-1 in the SEC and No. 4 in RPI, and are looking like a very sure bet to host in their first year in the SEC. They get red-hot Xavier in this regional, in addition to UTRGV and Navy.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (15)
2. Oklahoma
3. South Florida
4. High Point*

North Carolina picked up a big series victory over Duke this weekend, but still fall a couple spots from last week. Still, the Tar Heels are 24-8 overall, 8-7 in the ACC and are No. 23 in RPI, putting them in range to host at the season’s end. Boosting their resume is a No. 4 non-conference RPI. Also in Chapel Hill is Oklahoma, who hosted in last week’s projections but fall out after being swept this past weekend.

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (3)
2. Kansas State
3. Fairfield*
4. Penn*

LSU has been quietly dominant this season, currently sitting at 30-3 overall, 10-2 in the SEC and No. 6 in RPI. The Tigers are in a great position to host, and we expect them to do so as a highly-seeded club. They get Kansas State in this regional, who hosted last week as our Big 12 champion, but fall out of that race after a series loss.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (14)
2. Wake Forest
3. USC
4. Austin Peay*

Auburn had a big weekend, earning a series victory against Alabama. The Tigers are now 22-10 overall, 6-6 in the SEC and No. 15 in RPI, and are track to be in the hosting race. They’ll need to keep winning through the remainder of their SEC schedule, and if they don’t, 2-seed Wake Forest could be the team to step in as a host. The Demon Deacons are 23-10 and 9-6 in the ACC, and just picked up a dominant series win against Florida State.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (4)*
2. West Virginia
3. McNeese
4. NJIT*

Clemson is our new projected ACC champion, and for good reason. The Tigers are 30-5 overall, 9-3 in the ACC and No. 1 in non-conference RPI, a resume boost that could land them even higher than they currently are in our Field of 64. West Virginia joins this regional as an intriguing 2-seed out of the Big 12, in addition to McNeese, who lands in as one of the final teams in the tournament.

Tucson Regional

1. Arizona (13)*
2. UC Irvine*
3. Kentucky
4. Fresno State*

We have another conference with a new projected champion this week, with Arizona taking over the Big 12 crown and joining the hosting mix as a result. The Wildcats are 22-9 overall, 8-4 in the Big 12 and No. 12 in RPI, and might be poised for another strong surge. UC Irvine is another team that is in the mix to host, if they continue to dominate in Big West play and win that league.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (5)
2. Troy
3. UTSA*
4. Wright State*

Tennessee is no longer our top overall seed, falling down four spots in this week’s Field of 64 after the stunning series loss to Texas A&M. Still, the Vols are 28-4, 9-3 in the SEC and No. 5 in RPI, with a No. 17 non-conference RPI as well. They are still an essential lock to host, and are still fully in the mix for the top overall seed at this point. Troy is another hosting sleeper.

Tuscaloosa Regional

1. Alabama (12)
2. Dallas Baptist
3. Arizona State
4. Southern Illinois*

Even after dropping its series against Auburn, Alabama is in good shape to host a regional. At 27-6 overall, 7-5 in the SEC and No. 9 in RPI, the Crimson Tide would undoubtedly host if the season ended today. They’ll need to keep winning down the stretch, or a team like Dallas Baptist or even Arizona State could be right there knocking on the door if things go right for them.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (6)*
2. Virginia Tech
3. Grand Canyon*
4. Oral Roberts*

UCLA continues to climb as our projected Big Ten champion, and the Bruins are sitting in a great position as chaos ensues around them in the rankings. At 25-6 overall, 10-2 in the Big Ten and No. 17 in RPI, it would be a surprise to see UCLA not hosting by the end of the year. Virginia Tech is another intriguing team at this point, though a bit off of the hosting mix.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (11)*
2. Louisville
3. Creighton
4. Ball State*

Coastal Carolina continues to look very good this season, exiting the week at 23-9 overall, 8-4 in the Sun Belt and No. 11 in RPI. They also have a non-conference RPI at No. 5 and non-conference strength of schedule at No. 16, which could launch them into the top eight when it’s all said and done.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (7)
2. Kansas
3. Duke
4. Central Connecticut*

Georgia stumbled over the weekend against Texas, but the Bulldogs are still firmly in top eight range at 29-5 overall, 8-4 in the SEC and No. 3 in RPI, in addition to having a non-conference RPI at No. 6. The Bulldogs will need to rebound down the stretch, but they’re still a top eight lock as of now. Kansas is in the regional as a 2-seed, and the Jayhawks could sneak into the hosting mix themselves if they stay in the Big 12 race.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (10)
2. TCU
3. Iowa
4. Florida A&M*

It was definitely a week to forget for Florida State, losing its final two games against Wake Forest by a combined 29-2 score. Still, the Seminoles are 25-6 overall and 8-4 in the ACC, and could easily play their way back into the top eight. Another intriguing Big 12 team that can’t be ruled out of the hosting mix is TCU, who falls in as the 2-seed in Tallahassee in this week’s Field of 64.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (8)
2. Cal Poly
3. Oregon
4. Gonzaga*

This all-west regional would be a fun one, headlined by Oregon State rounding out the top eight. The Beavers sit at 22-7 on the year, and just won a massive series against UC Irvine after dropping the opener on Friday. Cal Poly is dominating through the Big West right now, and if it continues, they could easily be hosting themselves. If Oregon can get its RPI sorted out, they’ll have a chance to surge, too.

Oxford Regional

1. Ole Miss (9)
2. Southern Miss
3. NC State
4. Tennessee Tech*

Ole Miss is 24-7 on the year, 8-4 in the SEC and No. 7 in RPI with a non-conference RPI at No. 9. The Rebels are firmly in the hosting picture, and have a legitimate chance to play into the top eight if they fare well down the stretch in SEC play. Southern Miss and NC State are both intriguing teams as well, and this might be the best regional altogether in this week’s projections.