Mets vs. Braves predictions and best bets for Sunday Night Baseball

Francisco Lindor

New York Mets' Francisco Lindor celebrates a two-run home run during the third inning of a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday, Sept. 15, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)AP

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The New York Mets came into this series with a great chance to clinch the NL East, but at this point they are just trying to salvage a series loss. The Braves have won the first two games of the series by beating Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, and they now will take on Chris Bassitt. But with so much on the line tonight, can the Mets win on Sunday Night Baseball and continue to control their own destiny? Our expert has a best bet for the contest, so let’s check out the pick.

Betting MarketBest bet for Sunday, October 2
Money line predictionMets ML (+110)

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Mets vs. Braves predictions, featuring Over 7.5 total runs

The series has so far been dominated by pitching, but I predict a higher-scoring game on Sunday. This season, Morton has struggled against the Mets and has been victimized by the long ball, giving up three home runs against New York in his three appearances.

Additionally, both managers played the first two games like they were must-win situations – so they have already exhausted the majority of their relief pitchers. This suggests that against two excellent offenses, we might see some worn-out arms.

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Throughout the entire game, the wind will be blowing directly out at a speed of about 10 mph, which means deep fly balls may gain extra distance. I’ll support the over 7.5 because when you take everything into account, this total is just a little bit too low.

Mets vs. Braves expert best bet for Sunday Night Baseball

The weekend’s most riveting series has lived up to the anticipation. To effectively win the division, the Mets needed to win at least two of the three games, but the Braves are not going down without a fight. In a shocking turn of events,

Atlanta won games one and two of the series by defeating Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. If New York wins today, it will still be in complete control of its own fate; yet, if the Mets lose, they will have a very slim chance of taking the NL East.

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For the last game of the series, the Mets will turn the ball over to Chris Bassitt – who has been reliable this year with a 3.27 ERA and a 3.34 xERA. He has a 2.77 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in two starts against Atlanta this season. Bassitt has improved dramatically over the past two months, going 8-1 with a 1.52 ERA since the beginning of August.

Charlie Morton recently received a season-long extension with the Braves following a successful 2022 season. There has been some small negative regression for Morton – especially when looking at his advanced metrics – from last season when he posted a 3.35 ERA and a 3.32 xERA.




He has already given up six home runs this month, which is understandable given that his barrel rate has nearly doubled from last season and is currently almost 10%. As the underdogs, the Mets have great value. Therefore we suggest backing New York to win the game.

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Who will end in 1st at the top of the NL East, Mets or Braves?

This game has massive implications for who will win the NL East. If the Braves complete the sweep tonight, they will be 2.0 games up on the Mets in the division and have the head-to-head tiebreaker. That means the only way for the Mets to win the division would be to sweep the Nationals in their last series while the Marlins sweep the Braves in Miami.

However, if New York wins tonight the teams leave Atlanta tied atop of the NL East with one series left in the season. The Braves would need to win one more game over the Marlins in their series than the Mets would in their series against the Nationals for Atlanta to clinch the division, otherwise the NL East would be New York’s.

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